The ninth tropical storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season formed across the central Caribbean, and is expected to turn into a hurricane before it hits Florida. If it does, it will be the first major hurricane to affect the state since 2018.
Tropical Storm Ian is located about 270 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, as of 11 a.m. Saturday and is moving west at 15 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The center said Friday that forecasts show Ian “as a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf as it approaches the west coast of Florida” shortly after passing over Cuba. Much of Florida’s Gulf Coast, including the eastern Panhandle, may be at risk.
Forecast models differ on Saturday morning about where Ian might make landfall on the Florida coast. The European model shows landfall near Fort Myers on Wednesday afternoon, while the American model shows land landing near Big Bend in the state early Friday morning.
The Hurricane Center’s official track splits the difference between the models, showing landfall near Tampa on Wednesday night.
Tropical storm winds may begin to affect southwest Florida as early as Tuesday, with a possible landfall on Wednesday.
Strengthening overnight, the storm – formerly known as Tropical Depression IX – had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph) and was expected to reach hurricane status over the next two days as it approached the Cayman Islands early From Monday. . Further reinforcements are expected as the regime approaches and across western Cuba on Monday evening.
As it reappears in the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the storm could reach major hurricane status with winds of 111 mph (178 km/h) or more.
“Ian is likely to be close to severe hurricane intensity as she approaches western Cuba,” the hurricane center said. “Since Ian is not expected to remain over Cuba for long, a slight weakening is expected due to this terrestrial interaction.”
If it strengthens to Category 3 or higher before reaching Florida, it will be the first major hurricane to make landfall there since Hurricane Michael in 2018, which was a brutal Category 5 storm when it hit Florida. Michael also underwent rapid condensation before making landfall, a phenomenon that is becoming more likely as ocean temperatures rise due to the climate crisis.
A hurricane watch for the Cayman Islands, including Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac, has been issued by the Cayman Islands government. The Jamaican government has issued a tropical storm watch.
According to the center, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate Ian and provide additional data later Saturday.
As expectations intensified, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on Friday requested federal emergency assistance in anticipation of the threat and also declared a state of emergency for 24 counties. Under the statewide emergency order, members of the Florida National Guard will be activated and on standby pending orders.
The governor urged those in the potential path of the storm to prepare.
“This storm has the potential to strengthen into a major hurricane and we encourage all Florida residents to make their preparations,” DeSantis said in a news release. “We are coordinating with all local and state government partners to track the potential impacts of this storm.”
Meteorologists urge residents to prepare
It was a slow start to what was expected to be an above-average hurricane season. Only one storm has made landfall in the United States, and no hurricane has made landfall or threatens neighboring countries.
Now, a week into the height of hurricane season, the tropics seem to have woken up, and forecasters worry that people have let their guard down.
“After a slow start, the Atlantic hurricane season has accelerated rapidly,” Colorado State University researcher Phil Klotzbach wrote on Twitter.
“People tend to lower their guard and think, Oh, yeah, we’re out of the woods,” Hurricane Center spokeswoman Maria Torres told CNN. “But in reality, the season continues. We’re still in September; we still have October to go. Anything that forms over the Atlantic or the Caribbean is something we need to watch closely.”
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.
Regardless of whether you live in the Caribbean, Florida, and other states along the Gulf Coast, pay attention to updated forecasts this weekend through early next week.
CNN Wire
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